Abstract:A variety of technical routes for solid-state batteries coexist, and the solid-state battery industry is optimistic and declining. From semi-solid to all-solid, opportunities and challenges coexist, what are the investment prospects in the field of solid-state batteries? On June 28, five industry leaders discussed and shared the industrialization of solid-state batteries to create a win-win situation.
The site of the 2024 Solid-State Battery Industry Ecosystem Entrepreneur Summit
On June 28, the "2024 Solid-State Battery Industry Ecosystem Entrepreneur Summit" hosted by Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, Battery 100 Association, and New Energy Special Committee of Suzhou New Era Business Administration Entrepreneur Federation was successfully held at the Suzhou International Conference Hotel, Xiangcheng District, Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province, with a total of more than 200 guests from well-known domestic universities and institutes, world-renowned car companies, battery manufacturers, materials and equipment, industry-related start-ups, and venture capital institutions attending the summit.
This entrepreneur summit aims to bring together the forces of industry, academia, research and other sectors around the world to discuss the latest progress, challenges, solutions and future development trends of solid-state battery technology, provide new ideas and new impetus for industrial development, build a bridge and bond of in-depth communication and cooperation to accelerate the innovation and breakthrough of solid-state battery technology and promote its commercialization process, and help the global energy transition and green economic development.
On the afternoon of June 28, Liu Min, chairman and general manager of Heyuan Lithium Innovation (Suzhou) New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Pi Tao, chairman of Hunan Zhongke Xingcheng Graphite Co., Ltd., Tian Hanrong, chairman of Shenzhen Times High-tech Equipment Co., Ltd., Wang Peihong, vice president of the Yangtze River Delta Carbon Neutrality Strategic Development Research Institute of Southeast University, Liu Tongxin, chairman of Qingdao United New Energy Co., Ltd., and other battery new energy industry chain entrepreneurs and expert representatives were invited to participate in the interactive session of the summit. What is the way to break through in solid-state battery technology? Opportunities and challenges coexist, what are the investment prospects in the field of solid-state batteries? Topics are discussed and shared. Battery Network (micro: mybattery) excerpted some of the wonderful views of the interactive guests for readers.
Yu Qingjiao, Secretary General of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance
Moderator (Yu Qingjiao, Secretary General of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance): It has been almost five years since the outbreak of the epidemic at the end of 2019. You should pay attention to the fact that since the end of September 2021, the listed companies in our lithium battery industry chain have fallen for two and a half years. In the past two years, the stock prices of more than 800 listed companies have been cut in half by 80%, the high 90%, and at least nearly half. Therefore, if you don't make money in the secondary market, it will also form certain obstacles to the withdrawal of funds and investors. In fact, we also have small funds and small investment platforms, and we have not invested in them since the end of last year, and we are also waiting and seeing. Because of the current overcapacity, after a year, there is no sign of complete clearance, whether it is materials, cells, or vehicles, there is no sign of complete clearance.
As you know, the battery has a characteristic, it has an eight-year warranty after loading, if the inventory is four years, the battery can not be sold, can only be reduced in price, so the cause of everyone from last year to the first half of this year to see is the "volume". Some people say that "volume" is negative, I don't think so, a volume occurs in an industry, indicating that we are qualified; If an industry does not exist, it is not eligible to roll. Of course, don't misunderstand the volume, in the final analysis, it is competition, is it product competition, brand competition or market competition? If there is a benign competition, is it a price war or a value war? You get what you pay for, whether it is a material, a battery cell, or a car, you can't touch the bottom line of infinite quality and safety.
Why do you feel that the first half of this year is particularly difficult? Because the life cycle of the battery cells in the inventory has passed halfway, it is basically impossible to load the battery cells produced in 2020 now, and it is difficult to sell them to energy storage. At the end and application side, the market demand is also disturbed by such factors such as geopolitics and trade wars.
Today, in the semi-solid, quasi-solid-state, and solid-state batteries, many guests made forward-looking sharing. We have been to see many companies, Weilan New Energy has been to it twice, Ganfeng Lithium has also seen it, Qingtao Energy has been to it twice in a row, and they are all semi-solid. Now, what bottlenecks does the lithium battery route, whether it is lithium iron phosphate or high nickel ternary, face?
The real development of China's lithium battery began with the 2008 Olympic Games, and it has been 16 years now. So far, there are still three major problems: First, the ceiling of battery energy density cannot be unlimited. Consumers may not care so much, and even want to charge once for a year without recharging, or say that they can run 10,000 kilometers on a single charge, but the infinite improvement of battery life is impossible. The second is safety, no matter what kind of power battery or energy storage, there will always be some unsafe things. The third is long life, I myself am a "heavy" electric vehicle user, it is normal to run one or two thousand kilometers a lot, so users and consumers have the most right to speak, which is the attenuation of energy density and the number of cycles and the issue of long life. Some cars have been running for three or five years, and they have decayed to 60 or 70 percent.
Back to today's topic, we are fortunate to invite all the guests here to discuss two topics: first, the coexistence of a variety of technical routes for solid-state batteries, the solid-state battery industry, there are those who are optimistic, and there are those who are declining, which of the technical routes can work? From semi-solid to all-solid, opportunities and challenges coexist, what are the investment prospects in the field of solid-state batteries? These two questions were thrown to the five guests on the stage. First of all, please ask Mr. Liu Min, chairman of Heyuan Lithium Creation, what do you think about these two issues?
Liu Min, chairman and general manager of Heyuan Lithium Innovation (Suzhou) New Energy Technology Co., Ltd
Liu Min: Hello everyone, let me briefly introduce that I first made solid-state batteries in Dongfeng Motor, and also completed the country's first solid-state battery new energy vehicle demonstration operation project in Dongfeng. In 2023, Heyuan Lithium was founded, focusing on the R&D, production and manufacturing of high-performance solid-state lithium batteries.
For the two questions just now, first of all, I think solid-state batteries must be the direction of the future, which is the unanimous conclusion that has been discussed in the scientific research community and the industry for more than ten years. Secondly, I believe that after the long-term efforts of many scientists, predecessors and peers, the opportunity for the industrialization and commercialization of solid-state batteries has arrived. The R&D of solid-state batteries in Heyuan Lithium can be understood as being carried out on the shoulders of liquid battery giants, and our team spent 16 years from scientific theory to engineering practice, and successfully delivered solid-state batteries on mature models of OEMs, which is a strong proof of its industrialization and feasibility. At present, the high-performance solid-state battery products we have developed are about to achieve large-scale mass production.
We choose Suzhou, the Yangtze River Delta is because there is a good solid-state battery industrialization foundation, lithium battery supply chain is mature, new energy vehicles, energy storage, drones, aerospace, robots and other application fields have very mature industrial chain resources and applications here, I think the mature industrial chain and excellent business environment, is the necessary conditions for the birth of good enterprises, good products. On this basis, we combined with their own product characteristics to do a differentiated analysis of the application side, the initial aim at the low-altitude economy, robots and other new quality productivity applications, I believe that this market must be promising, this is also the next advantage industry that Suzhou is focusing on supporting, we must seize this major opportunity.
Overall, I think there is a huge business opportunity in the solid-state battery industry right now, and the time to invest is now. Below, I would like to share a few personal views.
First, solid-state batteries are more of a technology platform than a product. This technology platform can introduce solid-state technology on the basis of existing liquid battery products to adapt to different application scenarios and provide customers with the best energy solutions through solid-state technology.
Second, the industrial chain of solid-state batteries is becoming more and more mature, which is enough to support us to do a good job in industrialization. For example, the main materials of lithium batteries such as cathode and anode materials, separators, and electrolytes have been very mature in China, and solid-state electrolyte materials have been developed for more than ten years, and have been used in automotive-grade solid-state batteries for more than two years, which means that the supply chain of solid-state batteries can well support the industrialization of solid-state batteries, especially in China. After two rounds of market-oriented financing, Heyuan Lithium has continued to introduce shareholders of listed companies in the industrial chain, which is to quickly build the solid-state battery industry alliance ecology and develop together with upstream and downstream partners, so as to walk more efficiently and practice the industrialization of solid-state batteries.
Third, the blue ocean market for solid-state batteries is coming. At present, there is a polarization situation in the lithium battery industry, new energy vehicles and energy storage industries continue to be under pressure, and the hom*ogenization of traditional liquid batteries is serious, which are all pain that the lithium battery industry is currently experiencing. However, since the beginning of this year, an emerging track has brought new vitality to the lithium battery industry, that is, the new quality productivity represented by the low-altitude economy and robots, which has put forward higher performance requirements for the battery, and opened up a new blue ocean market for the next generation of lithium batteries, that is, solid-state batteries. We have reason to believe that with the continuous breakthrough of solid-state batteries in emerging application fields, the industrialization of solid-state batteries is becoming more and more mature, which will eventually affect the entire new energy industry, including new energy vehicles, energy storage and consumer electronics. Heyuan Lithium is committed to becoming a practitioner of high-performance solid-state battery industrialization, and we hope to work together with our peers to jointly create a solid-state battery business in China and enhance its international influence. We hope to meet more like-minded partners to create a win-win situation!
Yu Qingjiao: To summarize two points of view: the first is that the track is certain, so work hard to do it. Second, don't overcrowd the single-plank bridge, the battery capacity of the high-nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate routes is overcapacity, then go to the blue ocean market, such as low-altitude economy and other application scenarios. Mr. Pi, you have just come back from abroad, from the perspective of the comparison between China and Europe, combined with our two questions, what do you feel?
Pi Tao, chairman of Hunan Zhongke Xingcheng Graphite Co., Ltd
Pi Tao: Our company is Hunan Zhongke Xingcheng, which is engaged in anode materials, and has been in this material industry for more than 20 years. For solid-state batteries, I personally think that there should be a dream in life, what if it comes true? In the solid-state battery industry, I have a learning attitude, and I also want to understand the overall progress of solid-state batteries and where the future direction is. Let me talk about my thoughts on the development of material systems.
The development of the lithium battery industry was determined in the consumer market demand at that time, and the direction of industrial development was determined. Later, the shift from consumption to power has been cultivated by the market for nearly 20 years. I think it was a germ when BYD dared to make power batteries around 2010, including the earlier Professor Qilu who did the "863" plan, and this sprout was in 2007 and 2008. Until 2010 to 2015, this industrial chain was just emerging, and then began to explode in 2015. In fact, it has huge support: first, the market demand has a clear direction, and second, the entire industrial chain includes the entire manufacturing industry, and the problems involving equipment and technology have been finalized, and the machine is relatively mature, and it is logical to promote the development of this industry later.
China also talked about cost today in terms of manufacturing, and I remember talking to European entrepreneurs about the cost of batteries ten years ago, and they set us a target of 100 US dollars, which is equivalent to 700 yuan. But we reached this standard about 8 years ahead of schedule, and the power of production is very strong.
From the current solid-state battery, I have studied it all day today, and I feel that the research and development of equipment and the follow-up of the industry, everyone's technology is making a lot of reserves. We have been doing research and development for semi-solid-state batteries, and we have been waiting for this opportunity for ten years, conducting a series of research. When it comes to all-solid-state, each business has its own characteristics, and no one can convince anyone. There is a problem here, in this case, all upstream and downstream industrial chains dare not invest in mass production. Mainly due to some uncertainty in the technical direction, which requires us to determine a relatively correct direction, battery companies in the process technology of all-solid-state batteries, to have a certain direction as soon as possible, upstream and downstream can do some work in the industrial chain supporting, will not lead to greater sunk costs of capital investment.
Another point, this statement may be biased, I also agree that solid-state batteries are the future direction, but due to the high cost, the energy density of 400-500Wh/kg is not much needed in conventional ordinary family cars. But are there any needs in other areas? Yes, low-altitude space technology, including long-distance transport vehicles, requires this high density. Once the application scenario is determined, this piece can be put into the market as soon as possible. At present, the NIO 150-kilowatt-hour electric car put into the market is not so in demand at the level of ordinary people. Now liquid batteries have formed a price anchoring effect, too cheap, solid-state batteries are 30%, 50% higher, except for high-end models, it is difficult for ordinary people to accept.
Yu Qingjiao: Like the patient capital proposed by the state, we also need to be patient in manufacturing, in terms of products, and in marketing. Many people are used to making quick money in the first 15 years, and they can't wait to invest this year and make a profit next year. Patience, that's the change in our mindset this year, and sometimes slowing down or slowing down can be the best way forward. Mr. Tian is also a veteran of the industry, please talk about your views.
Tian Hanrong, chairman of Shenzhen Times High-tech Equipment Co., Ltd
Tian Hanrong: I am Tian Hanrong of Times Hi-Tech, as a representative of the equipment industry, I will talk about solid-state batteries from the equipment.
In 2016, I visited 24M Company in Boston, USA, due to business services, and I really came into contact with solid-state batteries. Today, such as CATL, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Honeycomb Energy, Ganfeng Lithium, EVE Lithium Energy, Funeng Technology, etc., including LG and Panasonic, these are important customers of Times Hi-Tech, in cooperation with these customers, we understand that in fact, these companies are in the long-term, continuous research and development of solid-state batteries, of course, we are also working closely according to the needs of customers.
As a solution provider, Times Hi-Tech must develop vacuum drying equipment suitable for solid-state batteries.
First of all, we must analyze the development from the mechanism, and from the mechanism analysis, where does the water come from? Why remove moisture? The moisture of solid-state batteries mainly comes from cathode materials, anode materials and the environment. Vacuum drying equipment must take into account these factors, such as how to remove solid water from the voids of the material, which does not vaporize until 150°C at an atmospheric pressure. We will develop equipment for materials, the environment, and production processes. From the perspective of the United States, Japan, and South Korea, most of them hope to solve the problem in the early stage of the process, that is, starting from the material, such as ternary, NCA, silicon lithium anode, etc., which are all material systems. Whether the electrolyte is liquid, semi-solid or solid, it is necessary to make full use of its pores, the higher the pore efficiency, the higher the battery capacity, but the premise is that the water hidden in these pores should be discharged, and the moisture also affects the safety and consistency of the battery, which are all things that we must fully consider in the process and equipment function design.
Second, we need to consider the impact of the environment. Battery companies in Japan and South Korea have very good control of environmental moisture throughout the production process after the preparation of raw materials. Just now, some experts said that the dew point of the entire environment of the solid-state battery manufacturing process should reach minus 60 degrees, to be honest, the current domestic battery manufacturing environment is basically not reached, and the dew point is really maintained to minus 40 degrees. The dew point is the temperature, but it actually represents the humidity of the environment, that is, the moisture content. Moisture in the environment is rapidly adsorbed by the pores rich in the battery material, and this moisture is present in liquid, gaseous and crystalline water. Crystal water, in particular, is present in a solid form in the fracture and is very difficult to remove, because it takes 150 degrees Celsius for the crystal water to vaporize at atmospheric pressure. In the production process of solid-state batteries, we have developed high-vacuum tunnel furnaces in the preparation process of positive and negative electrode materials for crystalline water, and uncoiling and baking equipment in the preparation process of electrode pieces, so as to ensure that the moisture content of solid-state battery materials reaches a relatively low level.
Third, we must consider the functional configuration of the equipment from the needs of the market. The market has different demands on price factors, quality factors, and functional factors, as well as the existing production capacity, production scale and corresponding costs, which will seriously affect the future trend. We believe that solid-state batteries, semi-solid-state batteries and liquid batteries, each with its own value, will better meet different needs, different market segments, in a long time, liquid batteries, semi-solid-state batteries and all-solid-state batteries will coexist. As a result, the corresponding liquid, semi-solid-state and all-solid-state battery equipment will also coexist for a long time.
Finally, I still think that solid-state batteries are an important development direction in the future and an ideal technical route. We say that communism is an ideal, the future is very bright, the road is very tortuous, and the development of solid-state batteries should also have a bright future, but the tortuous road must also be ideologically prepared. I estimate that our new energy industry chain will be rolled for a year or two, until everyone can't move, I hope that our industry chain is not as urgent as it is now, and can slowly calm down, only sustainable development, we can see the future, in order to see the success of solid-state batteries.
Yu Qingjiao: Okay, thank you, Mr. Tian. Actual semi-solid, quasi-solid, all-solid, to have a good product, must be equipped first. Without good equipment, it is impossible to come out with good products. No matter how simple and optimized the process is, the equipment can't be done, and the mass production of the product can't be realized. Most of our lithium battery equipment is localized, and we hope that in solid-state batteries, the equipment will be forward-looking. Next, I would like to ask Dean Wang to share his thoughts.
Wang Peihong, vice president of the Yangtze River Delta Carbon Neutrality Strategic Development Research Institute of Southeast University
Wang Peihong: I am from the Yangtze River Delta Carbon Neutrality Strategic Development Institute of Southeast University, and what I have been doing in the past is to call it "meso" research, while in the Carbon Research Institute is to do "macro" research, and today I will also talk about a little bit from the perspective of "macro".
First of all, answer the two questions on the side of the president, the first is that from the perspective of technological development, solid-state batteries are the inevitable direction. Second, from the perspective of business investment, although there are many changes, it is still a hot place. As for the reason, today's report for the whole day actually explains the above-mentioned problems.
For the rest of the time, I would like to share my impressions. The first is to thank Suzhou, Xiangcheng, Suzhou and Xiangcheng, which provide a good environment for innovation and entrepreneurship. The fact that this meeting can be held here today is also a kind of vision of governments at all levels in Suzhou. Second, thank you very much to Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, today this will give me a very strong feeling, bringing together all the enterprises in this industrial chain ecosystem, and being able to openly and honestly show the relevant research progress and existing problems, which is commendable and has a vital impact on the development of technology. Hopefully, our alliance will continue on this path.
When it comes to the industry, when it comes to the diversified technical route of solid-state batteries, I feel a lot of emotion. It turns out that I have seen the diversified technical route of solid-state batteries, and from the perspective of "meso" research, it shows that this technology is in the early stage of a big explosion. I heard and saw from the meeting: "We can't convince each other, we all have our own insistence", which is precisely the stalemate before the technological breakthrough. As a company, in order to convince the market and investors, we need to prove that our technology is the best, and we are continuing to make efforts. From a "macro" point of view, the development of solid-state batteries is the trend of the times, and the goals of battery technology development are: first, safety, because safety is very important for use scenarios; The second is high energy density, although for vehicles, the higher the better, but after all, after improving the energy density, the application scenarios will be diversified, for battery companies, for the industry, there is more room for development; The third is cost control, good technology must be technical and economic technology, good market competitiveness.
Yu Qingjiao: Thank you, Dean Wang, for your strategic analysis of the industry, thank you. Mr. Liu, talk about your thoughts on these two issues.
Liu Tongxin, chairman of Qingdao United New Energy Co., Ltd
Liu Tongxin: We are doing battery swapping, and there is a demonstration of our battery swapping car and station in the square at the door, which may have been seen by everyone, in fact, we are looking forward to the solid-state battery being listed as soon as possible, and even semi-solid-state. Our battery swap scheme is different from the traditional one, which is basically picked up and down or left and right, while we use the third scheme, which is to pick and replace the battery at the front end.
This solution realizes three major functions, and it also breaks through the three bottlenecks of traditional battery swapping. The first is that the battery is difficult to adapt to standardization, the second is that it is difficult to adapt to the whole range of models, and the third is that it is difficult to make strategic investment and dense layout. Our battery is a standard battery with different numbers of series and combination to form a large battery pack with different voltages and different capacities, which can be adapted to all models. This solves two problems, one is the standardization of batteries, and the other is the adaptability of the car. However, there is one most important problem, the economy of our battery swap station, if there is no strong economy after it is made, and it cannot create better value for customers, the technology is definitely meaningless. Therefore, one of the biggest advantages of our program is that our battery swap station is miniaturized, very economical, and very profitable. In this case, it can be densely laid out in large quantities.
One of the core problems of battery swapping is the density of battery swapping stations. Why does the oil car not have a concept of battery life? When we bought a car, we never asked how long the fuel tank lasted, because we have a lot of gas stations. If our battery swap station is laid to the same density as a gas station, or even higher than the density of a gas station, there is no problem of battery life. Therefore, our solution can solve the three core problems of battery swapping.
The battery we use now is a lithium iron phosphate battery, which has two shortcomings: one is that the energy density is relatively low, and the other is that the low temperature effect is not very good. We require the volume energy density of the battery to be a little higher, because it involves the standard capacity of a battery. The size of our battery is 1155mm long, 560mm wide, and 135mm thick. If we change to a solid state, even a semi-solid state, at this volume, we can reach a capacity of 35 degrees. If it's this capacity, it's perfect. But in fact, you don't have to reach 35 degrees, you can reach 25 degrees, A00 only needs to install one battery, A-level two, B-level three, this capacity is completely okay. Replace the battery once to ensure a range of 350-400km. In fact, there is a calculation value in the industry, the unit energy consumption and the size of the battery, including the carrying capacity of the fuel tank, in the range of 300-350km, its unit energy consumption is the most economical. We can make this car run 1000 kilometers, but the battery will be large, and the energy consumption per kilometer will be high, and the same is true for gasoline cars.
I hope that solid-state battery manufacturers will dock with us, and now there are two companies that are sending us samples for testing, and we have a great demand, about 3-50,000 pieces this year, 500,000 pieces may be needed next year, and several million pieces may be needed the year after tomorrow. This is not blown, because with our plan, the battery swap mode is established, the competitiveness of the car is very strong, and we now have a large number of orders for the car. In each car, as you can see, there are three batteries in the light truck. If you sell 100,000 light trucks a year, you need 300,000 batteries. In addition, the swappable batteries in the battery swap station are 20%, and 360,000 batteries should be needed. If it's 1 million cars, it's 3.6 million batteries. I hope that battery manufacturers can connect with us.
Yu Qingjiao: Liu always doesn't care what the route, as long as it can meet the needs.
Finally, please use the last sentence to summarize the biggest feelings of this day and your expectations for the future.
Liu Tongxin: Solid-state batteries or semi-solid-state batteries, as soon as possible on the market, we need to purchase a large number of them.
Wang Peihong: Industry, academia, research, use, and finance should work closely together and play a role on this platform.
Tian Hanrong: We have more and more fellow travelers, thank you.
Pi Tao: I think that since solid-state batteries are in the right direction, we should work in this direction.
Liu Min: Everyone works together, and the solid-state battery company will run faster and more steadily.
Yu Qingjiao: Thank you. I would also like to conclude that, first of all, life is meaningful by doing the difficult but right things. Second, believe in your choice, as long as the track and trend are right, the harder you work, the luckier you are. Third, our theme is the ecosystem, hoping that the solid-state battery will no longer be like the original lithium battery early system, and we will build a real ecology, you have me, I have you, mutual achievement, mutual fulfillment.
(The above views are based on the shorthand of the forum and have not been reviewed by the speakers themselves.) ）
